If you sat with friends in Mindanao, the word they would use for the election was finally. On September 14, they got it, and on September 15, they got a parliament in which nobody has a majority. The Bangsamoro voted, and nobody won. Turnout reached 84 percent, the highest the region has recorded (GMA), and the 80 seats were divided so that no party reached the 41 needed to choose a chief minister (Manila Times). The new parliament sits on October 30. Until then, the question many are asking is a blunt one: did the MILF lose?
It is a fair question. But we need to question its assumptions before answering.
What the numbers say
In the proportional contest, the Bangsamoro Federalist Party took 16 seats with 35.86 percent of the vote; the MILF’s own United Bangsamoro Justice Party took 15 with 32.44 percent; the BARMM Grand Coalition took eight (Wikipedia’s tabulation of the tentative canvass). Add the district and sectoral seats and the Commission on Elections records give the Federalist Party 31 and the UBJP 30, with the Grand Coalition at 15 (MindaNews, October 2). On October 2, the Federalist Party announced a coalition of 46, built from its 31 and 15 MPs it declined to name. It later called the coalition “BFP-SIAP-NMIP-UBJP,” after the party of Lanao del Sur’s governor, the Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples and at least two UBJP district members. But the two indigenous representatives say they remain independent, and the Grand Coalition says it has signed nothing (MindaNews, October 4). A claimed majority is not yet a counted one.
The UBJP was created by the MILF as its political vehicle. President Marcos installed Abdulraof Macacua as the interim chief minister in 2025. This appointment was over the MILF leadership’s objections. The MILF’s Central Committee suspended Macacua as chief of staff of its armed forces and then expelled him from that post on September 3. Macacua leads the Federalist Party. The MILF chairman says Macacua remains a member of the MILF movement (MindaNews, October 4). Add the two proportional shares (those of the UBJP and the BFP) and the movement’s children took roughly two-thirds of the vote.
So, in one sense, the MILF did not lose the ballot box. But its unity, and therefore its monopoly, was broken.
Two false extremes
One reading says the MILF has lost. Manila split the movement, appointed its man (Macacua), and watched his party take the plurality. That reading leans heavily on allegation. UBJP supporters accuse the government, the election commission, the military and the police of favoring the Federalist Party (Khaleej Times). That is a serious charge. The MILF’s own negotiator did ask the government to “investigate, identify, and prosecute” those behind the irregularities, “regardless of affiliation” (MindaNews, September 27).
The other reading says the MILF has won. The transition is complete, both leading parties are its offspring, and the presidential office declares the “political track” finished (Tribune). Yet the vote also saw five people killed and dozens wounded (the counts of the injured run from 18 to 48), along with pre-shaded ballots in 36 of 68 precincts in Maluso, Basilan (IRI).
The truth sits between them. A monopoly was lost; the peace has been neither lost nor secured.
The guns decide
Two factors matter more than who wins the seat count. The first is disarmament. The MILF suspended the final phase of decommissioning in July 2025, leaving roughly 14,000 combatants and 2,450 weapons outside the process. Government and MILF negotiators met in Kuala Lumpur on September 25 and approved a working group to draw up a roadmap. The date for its implementation is still unknown. The MILF’s chief negotiator, Mohagher Iqbal, put the problem plainly: “the political track has moved further than normalization” (MindaNews, September 27). On October 1, the MILF chairman, Murad Ebrahim, wrote to President Marcos asking for a meeting about decommissioning, normalization and livelihood help for former MILF fighters (MindaNews, Oct 10).
History offers two warnings. In the old Autonomous Region, Nur Misuari signed the 1996 agreement and won the governorship; his own comrades ousted him as chairman in 2000, and in November 2001 his followers attacked an army headquarters in Jolo days before an election. Allegedly, he was not prepared to lose (Wikipedia). On the other hand, in Indonesia’s Aceh province, in 2006, a former rebel ran against his movement’s leadership and won, and the peace held (Wikipedia). Both movements split. What differed was whether the loser still had armed followers and a grievance.
Here is the worry. Manila most needs a single counterparty on the BARMM side to carry out the disarmament at the very moment the MILF, being politically divided, is least able to supply one. Who commands the remaining fighters? That is the question.
The purse decides too
The second critical factor after disarmament is money. The Bangsamoro government runs on a block grant from Manila, and the regional budget for 2026 is ₱114 billion (GMA). Whoever forms the government will decide where it goes: which ministries, which districts, which contractors, which former fighters. The chief minister appoints the ministers, most of them from among members of parliament. He also nominates two Deputy Chief Ministers, and Parliament elects them (Manila Times). For further details, see the BARMM Organic Law.
The incoming government will have a test case regarding how it handles finances. As of September 25, the Ministry of Public Works had obligated ₱9.3 billion of its ₱10.8 billion 2025 appropriations but disbursed only ₱3.5 billion, leaving ₱5.8 billion unpaid. Unreleased funds revert on December 31, so a bill before the appointed Bangsamoro Transition Authority would extend their validity to pay obligations already incurred (MindaNews, October 10). Its author says it creates no new spending, and that may be so. But the unpaid list includes two district offices in Sulu, which the Supreme Court has removed from the region, carrying about ₱543 million between them. Who audits the arrears, and by what rule are they paid?
The two camps already accuse each other in this matter. The MILF’s Central Committee says Macacua removed its loyalists from posts; Macacua says he was suspended after dismissing a minister over an audit finding on ₱2.2 billion in transactions, and he promises to pursue graft (MindaNews). Election observers noted persistent allegations of vote-buying and misuse of state resources (IRI).
Equity or financial fairness can be measured. Does the next budget reach the districts that voted for the losers as it reaches those that voted for the winners? Do the 17,000 former fighters in the camps see the training and livelihood support promised, which TESDA says it is delivering at ₱160 a day for a month-long course (MindaNews, October 6)?
So the two important and unanswered questions relate to disarmament and money.
One analysis, four readers
An analysis is only useful if someone can act on it. Here is how it might relate to four different readers.
- If you are a regional analyst: do not call the result won or lost before October 30. Watch who is elected Speaker, whether the Federalist Party names its 15 partners and keeps them, whether the UBJP joins the government or the opposition, whether the Kuala Lumpur working group publishes dates for decommissioning, and what the new government proposes for ministries and the 2027 budget.
- If you work among Muslim communities: stop speaking of “the MILF” as one voice. Keep relationships open without becoming identified with any party, and stay close to people in their everyday lives.
- If you think theologically about politics: judge the arrangement by how it treats those least able to bargain, not by whose faction prevails. Who benefits when public money moves? Are there developments that make for peace and fairness? Can the church be present in a faithful way that models the gospel?
- If you teach: present the region as plural. A student who learns “Muslim Mindanao” as a single bloc will misread the next five years.
In conclusion, the MILF has lost its monopoly, but not yet the peace. The answer to the title’s question will come on October 30, and in the months after, when we see who holds the guns and whether resources are used equitably.
In our political theology course, we ask three questions. What can we know? What should we do? And what can we hope for? While the political life of the BARMM in the context of the Philippines is extremely complex, much can be known. And we should continue to seek the truth in an ever-evolving situation to the extent that we can. Our words and actions should reflect godliness and biblical values. Most of all, our Muslim friends and neighbors should see our love for them in action, since they, too, are God’s image bearers. And our hope? We can hope, however feebly, for a measure of peace and human flourishing. But our ultimate hope, in the ups and downs of political life, rests in the God of all hope (Rom 15:13), and in the good news he offers to every people.
Bibliography
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———. MindaNews, October 10, 2026. [URL]. (On Parliament Bill No. 476 and unpaid infrastructure obligations.)
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