Notes on Southeast Asian Affairs, May 16 2025

Based on current trajectories—military buildups, political rhetoric, U.S. commitments, Taiwan’s defenses, and regional dynamics—I would assess the chances of Taiwan falling to China within the next 5 years as a 4 out of 10.

Here’s the reasoning behind that estimate:

Why it’s not higher (not 7–10):

1. U.S. Deterrence Still Matters – The U.S. has been clear about its military and political support for Taiwan. While strategic ambiguity continues, its actions (military presence, arms sales, and diplomatic signaling) make it likely that any full invasion would meet strong resistance.
2. Taiwan’s Growing Defenses – Taiwan is actively shifting toward asymmetric defense strategies, stockpiling advanced weapons, and increasing its readiness, making a quick takeover unlikely.
3. Risk Aversion in Beijing – Xi Jinping likely wants unification without war. A failed military campaign could destabilize the CCP internally. The economic and geopolitical consequences would be devastating for China.

Why it’s not lower (not 1–3):

1. PLA Readiness Is Improving – China’s military is rapidly modernizing. Invasion scenarios are being rehearsed openly. Strategic patience is shrinking.
2. Political Will in Beijing – Xi has linked national rejuvenation to unification with Taiwan. He is aging, and his window to act may close in the next 5–10 years.
3. Communication Channels Are Weak – There are few reliable crisis hotlines between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington. Miscalculation is a real danger.
4. Geopolitical Distractions – If the U.S. becomes entangled in another major crisis (e.g., with Russia or in the Middle East), China may see an opportunity.

Final Call:

4/10

A real risk, rising every year, but not yet at the tipping point. The next 2–3 years are especially critical. A crisis or misstep could sharply change that rating.

Note: The May 15, 2025, article titled “The Risk of War in the Taiwan Strait Is High—and Getting Higher” by Bonny Lin, John Culver, and Brian Hart, published in Foreign Affairs, presents a stark analysis of escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, highlighting the increasing likelihood of military conflict.