Notes on Southeast Asian Affairs – April 12, 2025

The latest news regarding the China-Philippines conflict over the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) highlights escalating tensions in the South China Sea, particularly in the West Philippine Sea, which is the portion of the South China Sea within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile EEZ. Here’s a summary of recent developments based on available information:

• Confrontation off Zambales: Over the weekend prior to April 6, 2025, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) encountered a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel within the Philippines’ EEZ off the coast of Zambales. The PCG reported that the Chinese vessel engaged in “reckless and dangerous maneuvers,” including multiple attempts to ram the Philippine patrol vessel BRP Cabra. This incident underscores ongoing aggressive actions by China within the Philippine EEZ, prompting Manila to release video evidence to support its claims. [Source: Philippine Star via X post on April 6, 2025]

• Increased Chinese Presence: Reports indicate a significant Chinese maritime presence within the Philippine EEZ. For instance, earlier data from September 2024 noted a record high of 251 Chinese vessels, including 16 PLA Navy warships, 28 Coast Guard ships, and over 200 maritime militia vessels, operating in the zone. More recently, China’s research vessel Zhong Shan Da Xue was observed conducting survey activities near the northern Batanes Islands, close to where U.S.-Philippine joint special operations training has been planned, further raising concerns about China’s intentions. [Source: X posts from @ianellisjones and @GordianKnotRay]

• Military and Diplomatic Responses: The Philippines, alongside allies like the United States and Japan, has been conducting joint naval drills in the South China Sea to bolster deterrence against China’s actions. On March 28, 2025, such exercises took place near a disputed shoal, monitored by a Chinese military ship. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a visit to Manila, reaffirmed the U.S.’s “ironclad commitment” to the mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, signaling heightened military cooperation amid China’s deployment of bombers near Scarborough Shoal, which lies within the Philippine EEZ. [Sources: AP News, Reuters]

• Espionage Concerns: Beyond maritime disputes, tensions have been exacerbated by espionage allegations. In early April 2025, reports emerged of Chinese firms potentially reconsidering investments in the Philippines due to an “unfriendly” atmosphere following the detention of 18 Chinese nationals on espionage charges this year. These incidents are seen as risking economic ties alongside the maritime conflict. [Source: South China Morning Post]

• China’s Stance: China continues to assert its expansive claims over the South China Sea, including the Philippine EEZ, under its controversial “ten-dash line.” Beijing has accused the Philippines of destabilizing the region by involving foreign powers like the U.S. in joint patrols and has conducted its own military patrols, such as one reported on March 28, 2025, in response to U.S.-Philippine alliances. [Source: Reuters]

These developments reflect a persistent pattern of confrontation, with the Philippines pushing back against China’s incursions through military alliances, public documentation of incidents, and diplomatic protests, while China maintains its assertive posture, undeterred by international rulings like the 2016 Hague tribunal decision rejecting its claims. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further escalation as both nations and their allies navigate this geopolitical flashpoint.

With the help of Grok 3